Analysing Sturgeon's STV Interview

I've just caught up with ITV News’s Peter Smith's interview with Nicola Sturgeon. It's worth watching the full 15 minutes here - it's a masterclass in deflection, evasion and misdirection.

The first question is about whether Scots would be as well vaccinated today if she succeeded in her manifesto pledge to take Scotland "out of the UK and into the EU". Sturgeon's response partially addresses the "into the EU" part of the question, pointing out that nothing about EU membership would have stopped the UK pursuing the procurement strategy it did. But she doesn't address why no other EU country has done so well, presumably because she'd have to congratulate the UK government on their procurement strategy - and that's never going to happen. 

When pressed to acknowledge how well the UK government had done on vaccination procurement it's notable that her favourite term for them ("Westminster") is replaced by her preferred term for the wider collective us ("all four nations in the UK"). This may seem a trivial observation, but the language used matters in framing the debate and she's a master of it. She will never directly acknowledge an achievement of "the UK" - and of course when she then talks of the NHS doing a sterling job it is qualified as "the NHS in Scotland".

It's notable that she singularly fails to address the "out of the UK" part of the question - the following discussion on economics perhaps explains why.

Things get really interesting when she's asked about her huge spending committments: "You can afford to commit to spending more than £17 billion while Scotland is in the UK [...] if Scotland were independent over the next five years, can you guarantee that every penny of that would still be spent?"

She doesn't miss a beat, responding without hesitation: "Yes - and let me tell you how it will be funded ..." before going on to give her rehearsed answer for how it would be afforded while Scotland is in the UK.  She answers the question she had expected to be asked, not the one she was actually asked.

The interviewer presses her on the scale of deficit an independent Scotland would start with on day one and the fact that her sterlingisation policy means no central bank (which means no ability to print money and higher borowing costs, necessitating greated fiscal prudence) .

Her response is a carefully rehearsed rhetorical sleight of hand which we've seen road-tested by Andrew Wilson and it really needs to be called out:

"If you look at taxes that people in Scotland pay, they fund all of the services like NHS and education they also fund the services that are currently reserved like pensions and social security ... most countries right now run a deficit [...]"

Did you spot it? Hats off to them - it's a good trick and you really have to be paying attention to notice how it's done.

"they also fund the services that are currently reserved like pensions and social security"

As this blog has pointed out before, taxes raised in Scotland categorically do not fund all services that that are currently reserved, but they do (give or take) fund reserved spending on pensions and social security.

So if one was prepared for the answer she gave (and journalists really should be) then the follow up would be:

Hold on - you say taxes paid by people in Scotland fund the services that are currently reserved like pensions and social security ... but isn't the truth that those are the only reserved services that taxes raised in Scotland would cover? What about international development aid, defence costs and debt interest payments; or indeed what about the other £7 billion of reserved expenditure that takes place in Scotland today?

That £7 billion supports over 15,000 DWP and HMRC employees based in Scotland, includes £900m on Network Rail in Scotland, £700m of Renewable Obligation Certificates supporting Scotland's renewables sector, over £1billion of research grants and R&D tax credits, 100's of £ millions on nuclear decommissioning costs in Scotland, BBC spending in Scotland, support for Scottish ferries and Creative & Historic Scotland, Maritime and Coastguard costs, Border Force, Broadband Voucher Schemes and so much more that is currently reserved spending in Scotland - and that is before considering the £2.5 billion of MoD spending in Scotland that directly funds over 13,000 military and civilan jobs here.

Too long? OK then:

But even before considering over £7 billion of overseas development aid, defence and debt interest costs that an independent Scotland's taxes would also have to fund, you've ignored another £7 billion of  reserved spending that taxes raised in Scotland don't cover. That's over 19,000 civil service jobs in Scotland, it's the maintenance and improvement of Scotland's rail infrastructure, it's support for Scotland's renewables industry and environmental initiatives, it's R&D tax credits for businesses, it's critical research and innovation investment, it's support for our creative industries - it's investment in Scotland's economy worth over £1,300 pa. for every man, woman and child in Scotland. Where will that money come from if you separate from the UK?

Still too long? OK then:

Why do you only mention reserved spending on pensions and benefits but ignore other reserved spending that directly funds over 33,000 jobs in Scotland¹, that is spent maintaining and improving Scotland's rail infrastructure, supports Scotland's renewables industry and environmental initiatives, funds R&D tax credits for businesses and critical research and innovation investment, supports our ferries and creative industries and pays for nuclear decommissioning? Even before considering overseas development aid, defence spending and debt interest, that's investment in Scotland's economy worth over £1,300 pa. for every man, woman and child in Scotland that you seem to be ignoring.

The only way out of this for the SNP is to suggest that somehow the scale of the deficit doesn't matter - which is what she basically goes on to attempt:

"most countries right now run a deficit, the UK carries a debt of more than £2 trillion, so it's not unusual for countries to be in a position of debt and deficit ..."

Notice how the scale of the deficit is ignored, as if running a deficit is just a binary consideration. For the avoidance of doubt: "most countries" most certainly do not run a deficit of the scale of that an independent Scotland would start life with, and "most countries" are not trying to launch a new currency or starting from scratch to build credibility on international capital markets. She's just ducked the question (again). 

As an aside: the reference to the UK's debt is a crude attempt at misdirection: Scotland will inherit a share of that debt and if anything recognising the scale of debt we will inherit as a result of the pandemic response merely exacerbates the challenge an independent Scotland would face.

She goes on:

"how you manage that [deficit and debt] is what determines your priorities and what determines the success of your economy.."

Well quite - and she's being asked how she proposes an independent Scotland would manage that. Just when you think she might be about to answer the question, she deflects:

"but the point - you started to ask me about the committments in this manifesto - and I set out for you exactly how they will be funded ..."

But "the point" she's been asked to address is how would those commitments be funded in an independent Scotland - and she has ducked the question (again) by instead answering how they propose those committments would be met while remaining in the UK. She's evading answering the actual question, because she has no answer. 

Rightly pressed on this, she resorts to just kicking the can down the road:

"When we are asking people to vote in an independence referendum, just as we did in 2014, we set all of that out in a prospectus and people will make their judgement - but you know, people are not daft ..."

Well now.

Some of us are indeed "not daft" and we recall what was set out in the prospectus she refers to: oil revenues of £6.8 - £7.9 billion pa². Since then actual oil revenues have averaged about £0.6 billion pa³. She might as well say "we nearly managed to fool people last time and we're confident we'll find a way to fool them next time - just don't expect any answers from me today."

Still: she's managed to evade the big economic question so she can be content that she's done her job. But she's clearly rattled, as evidenced by the condescending tone she then adopts

"Can I let you into a secret Peter? There are hard times ahead whatever happens right now because we're in a global pandemic [...] now I would rather have a situation where we could deal with that through proper investment, investing in the things that grow our economy rather than another period of austerity ..."

Wouldn't we all?

The problem is she's blatantly failed to address the key question, despite being pressed several times in this interview. How does she propose we avoid another period of (deeper) austerity given her defining policy of separation would mean: the loss of c.£10bn pa of fiscal transfers from the rest of the UK; facing the challenges of creating a new currency (or the fiscal constraints inherent in Sterlingisation); the need to meet the deficit criteria laid out in the EU's fiscal compact (if she's serious about rejoining the EU); weathering the economic costs of border friction (which the LSE has argued would inevitably follow); funding the transition costs of unpicking and rebuilding what is currently deeply integrated machinery of state; coping with the (currency risk related) capital and talent flight that would likely ensue. 

These are questions which she will not answer for the simple reason that she has no answers.

***

The interview moves on to the SNP's failure on managing drug deaths. She's confronted with her admission that "we took our eye off the ball" and asked "where was your eye?". It's a rhetorical question of course, because we all know Sturgeon's eye is always first and foremost on independence - the politics of division will always come before the politics of compassion for the SNP. 

She is pressed not just on drugs deaths but on avoidable care home deaths through the pandemic and the best she can offer is basically "mistakes get made" and "let the people decide". 

Her response to the final question in the interview is revealing. When asked if she would use votes cast for Alex Salmond's Alba party to claim a mandate for a second independence referendum, she refuse to deny that she would.

It seems that if you're a separatist, whether evaluated in economic or moral terms, no price is too great to pay for breaking up the UK.

***

NOTES

1. 20,000 civil service personnel (mainly DWP and HMRC, also Home Office, DfID, OFGEM, CICA, HMCTS, HSE, Maritime and Coastguard Agency, DBEIS, ACAS, Met Office and other) and 13,000 military and civilian personnel directly employed by the MoD:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/civil-service-statistics-2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/location-of-uk-regular-service-and-civilian-personnel-annual-statistics-2019

2. "Scotland's Future" p.75

3. Average North Sea revenues between 2015-16 and 2019-20 were £614m pa (per Scottish Government GERS figures)