tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post4576487137895970277..comments2024-01-12T01:56:21.933-08:00Comments on chokka blog: GERS 2014-15: Reasons to be CheerfulKevin Haguehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comBlogger25125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-42483350467084571242016-03-25T04:40:50.258-07:002016-03-25T04:40:50.258-07:00@Drew "Scotland is in dire financial straits ...@Drew "Scotland is in dire financial straits in terms of our public finances. We are spending well beyond our means. None of the main parties in Scotland have anything remotely approaching a plan to get greater equilibrium between our revenue and spending."<br /><br />I have to disagree Drew. The parties that wish Scotland to be part of the Union are implementing a plan that protects us from what you refer to as "dire financial straits"<br /><br />And as Kevin's skilful presentation of the primary source of data proves. (The data used by both Yes and No. It is an effective plan.<br /><br />Pooling and sharing works well for all UK parties. Independence would create a significant economic crisis. Without it there is no crisis.Stevie Macnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-75059410115563559542016-03-12T00:34:17.629-08:002016-03-12T00:34:17.629-08:00"Pooling sovereignty" is the essence of ..."Pooling sovereignty" is the essence of democracy. All democratic countries do it. However, the countries themselves are relics of feudalism. I can't see why you have a preference for one feudal relic over another. Is there a reason?<br /><br />I'm left puzzled by your second sentence. Have you read the article?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-87023855800680005432016-03-11T13:48:33.757-08:002016-03-11T13:48:33.757-08:00Rocoham
Thank you for your response and question...Rocoham <br /><br />Thank you for your response and questions. As a scientist , you have to game yourself to always be objective rather than subjective. That is why I distrust both sides of this highly partisan debate. As a non expert in economics, I can only suggest that objectivity should be at the heart of uncovering and accounting of all expenditure and income, with respect to Scotland and the UK. No side has offered this as far as I know. One area that might be of contention is how to earmark spending in taxes that current collected by the UK but occur in Scotland. Also capital spending in London that is ring~fenced and stays out of consequential funding considerations i.e. Crossrail project in London, the London Olympic games. Similarly the Scottish government should open its books to (although since they have to balance the budget by law, they are constrained to do so already)<br /><br />On the point of your assumption of my preference for full independence.That is one option. I am open to other situations. For example it is possible to have a position where all power resides in the Scottish people (via PR elections to the Scottish parliament), but we decide to remain within a federal UK, where we would pool and share resources, whilst lending authority to a federal UK parliament. Thus power is concentrated at the periphery (similar powers being sent to the English regions as well as NI). This reverses the current situation where the parliament in Westminster has too much power for its own and the country good. The same principle could also apply to economic levers to, with UK level negotiations to hammer out a consensus and regional differentials.tamdunlop68https://www.blogger.com/profile/10560526768591869797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-82012883173452649012016-03-10T16:31:13.585-08:002016-03-10T16:31:13.585-08:00The big difference is that the No side were very c...The big difference is that the No side were very clear that putting your economy at the mercy of such an unpredictable and volatile commodity was unwise and fraught with danger. It was the Yes side who implicitly rejected your caveat about past trends, and who shouted down anyone who brought it up.<br /><br />You see another nation; I and many others don't. We see that compromise is required in grown-up polities, and that being part of the UK allows us to have a standard of living which would not be possible for an independent Scotland, in at least the short to medium term. I personally think we'd fall behind rUK in terms of general prosperity and living standards and that gap would never close. Look across the Irish sea.<br /> <br /><br />There were many inbuilt somethings awakened by Yes rhetoric during the referendum campaign, few of them admirable, since they sprang in the main from tribalism, grievance and an unreasoning and adolescent view of a Brave New Scotland (which unlike every other state in the history of the world will not be run by and for the benefit of its elites).<br /><br />The GERS figures once again show a Scotland unable to support itself in the manner to which it has become accustomed if it separates. Yet we still see Nationalists unwilling to acknowledge this and face up to the real hard work of constructing a viable plan to deliver a truly prosperous independent Scotland. When they do that, they'll have my grudging respect.Hoops McCannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12168123495981434895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-14313492890443787362016-03-10T15:37:46.566-08:002016-03-10T15:37:46.566-08:00An excellent comment which quite succinctly gets t...An excellent comment which quite succinctly gets to the nub of the issue. I fear, however, that those minded to separate from the UK are long past the point where rational thought has any effect on them. As Anonymous at 6.53 pointed out, there are no facts and no arguments which they cannot warp to support their point of view.<br /><br />I would have significantly more respect for them if independence supporters were at least prepared to address the facts and have a grown-up conversation about what they mean and how they would tackle them. Unfortunately, they simply ignore the facts and engage in diversionary tactics. The strategy is virtually identical to that used by Creationists and Intelligent Design proponents to undermine evolution. You make enough plausible seeming objections to create doubts in the minds of the less well-defined, and bingo, you've given them an excuse to think no further and indulge their gut instincts. Once that happens, you've lost them.<br /><br />There's now a large number of people in Scotland who will only be convinced that independence is a bad idea when we're experiencing Greek levels of austerity, when the tax base has been shredded by the flight of large numbers of high paying jobs, when financial services has gone the way of the shipyards and coal mines, when public sector pensions have been shut and replaced by much worse schemes, and when it becomes clear that Ireland is a more likely role model than Norway. <br /><br />As Benjamin Franklin observed “Experience keeps a dear school, but fools will learn in no other, and scarce in that.”<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Hoops McCannhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12168123495981434895noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-27259003861167428992016-03-10T14:56:01.088-08:002016-03-10T14:56:01.088-08:00Fairnfree.
You still have that problem in an indep...Fairnfree.<br />You still have that problem in an independent Scotland. 5,294,999 votes out of 5,295,000 would reside in other people. What would be your principal principle for that?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-39762310819863863922016-03-10T13:47:49.221-08:002016-03-10T13:47:49.221-08:00Norway is an even larger country with a similar po...Norway is an even larger country with a similar population size, yet it does not need to 'pool sovereignty' to be successful. Perhaps because it keeps all of the revenue generated from it's own resources and controls how that revenue is spent.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-70905460762938397972016-03-10T13:19:59.321-08:002016-03-10T13:19:59.321-08:00Fair enough. Just trust the advice of people that ...Fair enough. Just trust the advice of people that do understand it, and you'll be ok.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-29532367583214677402016-03-10T09:07:03.696-08:002016-03-10T09:07:03.696-08:00Thomas, as a scientist perhaps you can point us to...Thomas, as a scientist perhaps you can point us to those areas where you feel the current facts/data are insufficiently complete or accurate for a robust conclusion to be reached. Or to where analysts of said data (Kevin would make a most suitable research subject) demonstrate an incomplete understanding. And finally to the facts/data and methodology on which you base your own belief (sic) that things would get better if we had full political and economic powers in Scotland (which I assume means independence).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-83789890485606673792016-03-10T02:23:05.969-08:002016-03-10T02:23:05.969-08:00"The fancy graphs and rhetoric spouted during..."The fancy graphs and rhetoric spouted during the referendum from the No campaign utilised something inbuilt in the human psyche, in that fear of change and the unknown takes precedence over any idealism."<br /><br />The problem here is that you're operating from the perspective that those who opposed independence were all either diehard Unionists or people who had been frightened into a No vote by the propaganda of diehard Unionists. <br /><br />Most of us are pragmatic about independence. I personally was quite open to the idea and supported having a referendum. But the best way to judge whether it's a good course of action or not is to look at what it would mean for the country and choose the best option. Is the information published by the Scottish Government imperfect? Of course it is. The information is always imperfect when you're discussing a future policy - fracking and Trident included. But you judge the situation on its own merits and make a call on it.<br /><br />In this case the figures show we get a fairly good deal from being part of the UK. We're a large and relatively sparsely populated country, which makes delivering public services more expensive than it is across the UK as a whole (that's one reason why our spending is above the UK average). We're also an economy that would be subject to a lot of volatility due to our reliance on oil and large financial sector. On both counts there's a lot of merit in pooling sovereignty and being part of a larger territory, while having areas that are best determined in Scotland devolved to the Scottish Parliament.<br /><br />Our membership of the UK means we can afford a level of public spending greater than what our revenue alone would allow (as GERS shows) and be protected from instability (as the oil price fall has shown). The "cost" of pooling sovereignty is you have shared institutions to determine those policies that you share with your partners. There's nothing shockingly undemocratic about cooperating with other countries for mutual benefit and in this case Scotland's place in the UK is of a very large fiscal and economic benefit for the people of Scotland.Jason-Prostnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-49881445037862581012016-03-10T01:38:56.551-08:002016-03-10T01:38:56.551-08:00As a scientist I would like to see the facts first...As a scientist I would like to see the facts first. It appears to me that both sides of this partisan debate are trying to trade advantages over each other, based on an incomplete understanding of all said facts.<br /><br />So what I would like to see is a non-partisan approach at collecting all the data available and seeing where Scotland finances truly are. This would require a lot of research and the governments to open their books to independent auditing. Then if they are in the negative, make sensible suggestions on how to improve the situation. If the contrary is true, we would have the choice still to remain and "pool and share" or decide to opt for more autonomy or full independence (in or out of the EU).<br /><br />Disclosure. I write this as a person who believes that things can only get better if we have full political and economic powers in Scotland. However at a more basic level, I just want life to be better for people and if that is in or out of the UK, so be it.tamdunlop68https://www.blogger.com/profile/10560526768591869797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-80730677142709498532016-03-10T01:13:52.462-08:002016-03-10T01:13:52.462-08:00The usual hocus hubble pocus bubble with jagged co...The usual hocus hubble pocus bubble with jagged coloured lines and column inches of necromantic numbers. Have you managed to turn base metal into gold yet Kevin? kailyard ruleshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11098989013431186162noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-20503396284159720592016-03-09T17:00:20.254-08:002016-03-09T17:00:20.254-08:00You can show as many graphs as you want. Truth is ...You can show as many graphs as you want. Truth is NO ONE knew with any certainty what the future held whether Yes or No. "Past trends should not be taken as a guide to future performance", as anyone who owns shares knows. With Yes vote I agree the future may have been more uncertain.<br /><br />However, the principal of a country running its own affairs, rather than being governed by a democracy where 9 votes in 10 reside in another country is key here. Why should we have Trident, The Poll Tax experiment, Fracking and a Brexit imposed upon us via the will of another nation? The fancy graphs and rhetoric spouted during the referendum from the No campaign utilised something inbuilt in the human psyche, in that fear of change and the unknown takes precedence over any idealism. Fairnfreehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15940157268150699243noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-46954201272255120792016-03-09T12:41:58.269-08:002016-03-09T12:41:58.269-08:00BBC Scotland news reporter paraphrasing an SNP spo...BBC Scotland news reporter paraphrasing an SNP spokesperson at the end of the report saying the SNP were complaining that we could have had an oil fund and blamed Westminster again! <br /><br />Except we could not have had one ! So between the brass neck of the SNP and poor journalism again by the BBC for not highlighting it ! The SNP hid there own Scottish Government report , which only got released through a F.O.I. request, clearly showing we could not have set up an oil fund as only once since 1999 we were in fiscal surplus !<br /><br /><br />http://www.gov.scot/...43/00435599.pdf abp1873https://wordpress.com/menoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-28476488721615309312016-03-09T12:20:51.369-08:002016-03-09T12:20:51.369-08:00We're not dependent upon another democratic un...We're not dependent upon another democratic unit, we are part of the UK as a democratic unit, because we were specifically asked and we chose to be. End of story astrpoet. Sheumaisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-60941122175620803722016-03-09T11:46:50.034-08:002016-03-09T11:46:50.034-08:00I'm not sure or knowledgeable enough to commen... I'm not sure or knowledgeable enough to comment on how accurate the GERS figures are. Firstly, as a democratic unit (whether or not you believe Scotland is a nation or not it is a democratic unit), Scotland must be either a net contributor or at least pay its way in the Union. Nothing else is acceptable to me. Nothing. I will not accept being subsidised by another democratic unit. (UK or whatever) whether independent or not. I will never support dependency. And I don't see how that demonstrating dependency should be a reason to celebrate.<br /><br />Secondly, if oil is failing so badly, we must be putting in place new industries and ways to cope with this. And we need the power to do this. Do I trust Westminster and the rest of the Union to do that for us? No, because at heart I do not believe that they want the best for Scotland or that they have our best interests at heart.<br /> astropoethttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04215279369075457562noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-49437488125786246262016-03-09T11:20:27.073-08:002016-03-09T11:20:27.073-08:00No doubting the part-awful message from the number...No doubting the part-awful message from the numbers (I say part only because the rest of the awful message will come in the 2015/16 numbers). But while I agree a bullet was dodged on Indy, it's worth being cheerful that the underlying recovery sans oil continues. The more we drive the volatility out the fiscal position whether Indy or not, the better for public services, jobs, economy etc. It's just such a shame that to applaud that improvement one must first pause to sigh over the state our finances have been driven down into. One ray of hope (tinged by the pain they went through) - Greece went from 15% deficit at their worst, to 3% deficit now, in 5 years. It just wasn't anyone's idea of fun.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-37017408708372437952016-03-09T10:44:08.251-08:002016-03-09T10:44:08.251-08:00I think this is just a poor attempt by Kevin to di...I think this is just a poor attempt by Kevin to divert attention from the much more important topic of Sunday trading. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-54552553007176460642016-03-09T10:33:11.076-08:002016-03-09T10:33:11.076-08:00Great work Kev, it's nice to see what those of...Great work Kev, it's nice to see what those of us with more practical heads and a rudimentary understanding economics were talking about while the others were planting wish trees, laid out so clearly. I come out in a cold sweat when I think of how close Scotland came to complete disaster.<br /><br />Great blogging as always.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-5327248121425203582016-03-09T10:15:54.288-08:002016-03-09T10:15:54.288-08:00On VAT IIRC that's an accounting policy differ...On VAT IIRC that's an accounting policy difference that nets out by the time you get to deficit.<br /><br />I do both bs UK and vs rUK as each have merit - if indyref we're choosing between being Indy or remaining as pry of total UK and sharing those economics. If however seeking FFA the "we" need to contribute the same as "them" so need to compare with rUKKevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-73004498296309625082016-03-09T09:14:53.064-08:002016-03-09T09:14:53.064-08:00Maybe you could analyse discrepancies in GERS mode...Maybe you could analyse discrepancies in GERS modelling compared to UK generated dates using, presumably different modelling. An example is VAT receipts for the 2014/15 fiscal year.<br /><br />GERS VAT £10.734bn<br />HMRC VAT Scotland £9.134bn<br /><br />The GERS VAT does have Scottish VAT receipts above the UK average and the reason given by HMRC appears to be a different approach taken to rebates. £1,6bn is a massive difference though to just brush on top or under the carpet. Which figure better represents Scottish VAT receipts?<br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/464199/HMRC_disaggregated_receipts_-_Methodology_Note.pdf ----- Table 8<br /><br />http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00495386.pdf ------- Table 1.1<br /><br />Many claim that GERS doesn't truly reflect actual data, usually those that don't like the final figure. It'd be interesting to know how accurate GERS is (are we talking + or - 0.5%, 5%, 10%?) and which figures quoted utilise a favourable or unfavourable UK per capita indexing.<br /><br />Also, why do people tend to compare GERS to the UK average? At least make it meaningful by offering a direct comparison to rUK data.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-4875879539608020972016-03-09T09:00:55.758-08:002016-03-09T09:00:55.758-08:00Oof. And the first few months of 2014/15 was befor...Oof. And the first few months of 2014/15 was before the collapse of the oil price, so imagine the position next year... If figures like this don't impact the SNP's lead, nothing will.<br /><br />ASAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-43617830093550674212016-03-09T08:26:49.223-08:002016-03-09T08:26:49.223-08:00It's not our revenues that are the problem, th...It's not our revenues that are the problem, those are about the same as the rest of the UK. <br /><br />The problem is providing good services in a large country with relatively small population. <br /><br />How is that holding us back? Nialhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17653206090015109714noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-23028241452005041712016-03-09T08:15:37.218-08:002016-03-09T08:15:37.218-08:00Maths is definitely not 'Yessers' strong s...Maths is definitely not 'Yessers' strong suit as 'anonymous' so readily provesAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-2492319613441242332016-03-09T06:53:07.121-08:002016-03-09T06:53:07.121-08:00This is just so much White Noise to the hard of th...This is just so much White Noise to the hard of thinking. When GERS is favourable its proof, if any were needed that Scotland is being robbed. When GERS is unfavourable its proof, if any were needed that Scotland is being held back.<br /><br />You can conjure any argument for any fixed position however irrational that is. In fact, the more irrational the better for many as it proves to be an impenetrable argument to any kind of logical analysis.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com