tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post9106664128687288257..comments2024-01-12T01:56:21.933-08:00Comments on chokka blog: Richard Murphy: The OutlierKevin Haguehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-55074254456137456022017-04-29T03:13:08.310-07:002017-04-29T03:13:08.310-07:00As Nationalists continue to struggle to put a posi...<br />As Nationalists continue to struggle to put a positive spin on GERS or find an alternative narrative for a positive economic case for independence, things couldn't look better for Scottish Unionism's long awaited revival post-2014, in terms of their electoral fortunes.<br /><br />The polls point to significant gains for the leading Unionist party in both local elections and the General election in Scotland and a slump in fortunes for both the SNP and the numbers in favour of independence.<br /><br />But there may be trouble ahead. The Daily Record's editorial piece today is a sobering reminder why a Scottish Tory revival might not necessarily be the best outcome for Scottish Unionism in the longer run:<br /><br />'In January last year the Scottish Government were locked in bitter negotiations with the Treasury over a financial settlement required to fund the new powers coming to Holyrood because of The Vow.<br /><br />These fiscal framework negotiations revolved around the Barnett Formula.<br /><br />The Treasury team were desperate to cut billions from the Scottish budget. They have been itching to take money away from Holyrood for years and they saw this as a perfect opportunity.<br /><br />If they got their way, the outcome would have been disastrous for Scotland.<br /><br />They did not get their way for one very good reason … David Cameron had signed The Vow on the front page of this newspaper.<br /><br />To stiff Scotland out of billions of pounds would have left his questionable integrity shattered.<br /><br />So he ordered the Treasury to roll over and agree to maintain Scotland’s funding for five years until a review in 2021. The Treasury was furious.<br /><br />When Scotland’s settlement comes up for renegotiation in a few short years time, there will be no David Cameron there to protect us, even if last time it was for purely personal reasons.<br /><br />Next time, the discussions will be led by Tory ideologues and a Treasury department hell-bent on revenge for not getting their way last time round.<br /><br />The outcome could be catastrophic for the NHS, education, and everything else the Scottish Government pay for north of the Border.'<br /><br />Tory central office will translate a strong performance in Scotland at the local and general elections as Scots are quite happy with a Conservative Government at any cost to Scotland as long as the Union is preserved.<br /><br />It was true in 2014 and it will be truer still for the years ahead.<br /><br />Only Labour in Scotland and in Westmnister can save the Union.Drewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-57694785636527105442017-04-26T10:08:32.116-07:002017-04-26T10:08:32.116-07:00In case you missed it kev, John Beattie revisited...In case you missed it kev, John Beattie revisited the gers debate this afternoon, inviting one of the civil servants who collated the data for 8 years....neatly followed by a discussion of fake news.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-13793319287692227402017-04-20T02:05:12.298-07:002017-04-20T02:05:12.298-07:00I don't think he's a professor of anything...I don't think he's a professor of anything per se ; it's one of those honorary titles. He's an accountant. <br /><br />I think he's figured out (like Stuart Campbell) that the Nats are so dumb they will throw money and adoration at anyone who tells them what they want to hear no matter how stupid. He tried it with Corbyn but it flopped.<br /><br />Paul Robsonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12278875872815047472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-15139681548652048472017-04-18T10:00:03.045-07:002017-04-18T10:00:03.045-07:00“Standard statistical analysis tells us that the s...“Standard statistical analysis tells us that the survey based revenue allocations in GERS are accurate to +/-£0.6bn13.”<br /><br />Confidence intervals around a sample-based central estimate indicate precision, not accuracy. Accuracy depends upon unbiased samples.<br /><br />Confidence intervals tell us that, 19 times out of 20, a similar exercise with a new sample would produce a new central estimate within those intervals. This is a statement about precision (repeatability), not accuracy.<br /> <br />No economist, I expect that much of the detailed work on GERS surveys aims to ensure unbiased samples and hence accurate estimates. This is presumably guaranteed when figures are designated “National Statistics”. No easy soundbite here!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-66044143080073651432017-04-18T04:45:06.899-07:002017-04-18T04:45:06.899-07:00Possibly 'outlier' should be read as '...Possibly 'outlier' should be read as 'outright liar'?D.Stewartnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-22112208632692815952017-04-18T03:20:54.429-07:002017-04-18T03:20:54.429-07:00One of the consequences of tory election victories...One of the consequences of tory election victories is the (re) emergence of the emboldened activist left, with a renewed sense of righteousness and indignation. Their flawed reasoning and sophistry is left unchallenged, especially in the dangerously simplistic world of social media. Murphy is of course the darling of the corbynites, in Scotland the equivalent cohort are tucked under the umbrella of RIC. These crusaders for the cause, have been hired by the SNP to give YES a vineer of socialist/radical tradition. Genuinely progressive voices are now being drowned out by hectoring, flawed logic of both Corbyn and RIC as they continue, desperately, to believe we are one rally/marche/demo away from victory. Mercifully these fools are nowhere near as important as they think they are, and it still surprises me how prominent they remain among Yes organs. Nothing pleases the snp more than every discussion being reduced to a choice between 'us' and the 'toareez'......Murphy and his 'corbynomics' claim to fame fits with the oddly disfigured left credentials of the indy movement. He will be of considerably less influence when he and the other corbynites yield to the inevitable and resign from positions of influence, probably in the autumn, following a disastrous local election campaign and yet another summer of blood on labour's carpet.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-74026040340787059602017-04-18T02:15:44.605-07:002017-04-18T02:15:44.605-07:00Calling Murphy an academic is an insult to real ac...Calling Murphy an academic is an insult to real academics. He's an accountant with delusions of grandeur. He is a "Professor of Practice" in International Political Economy - he is not a real professor. And IPE is riddled with cretinous marxists. Murphy doesn't appear to even understand accounting or tax - which are supposedly his areas of expertise. His sole economics qualification is a long ago bachelor's degree from a redbrick university. It's astonishing that City University is willing to allow this idiot anywhere near their students. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-10233961840443480462017-04-18T00:52:31.425-07:002017-04-18T00:52:31.425-07:00Murphy does seem to be quite keen on his personal ...Murphy does seem to be quite keen on his personal conspiracy theories, based on his own 'outlier' reputation.<br /><br />eg<br />"Westminster could pretty much manipulate this data at will"<br />http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2017/03/16/on-scotland-data-data-denial-and-gers/<br /><br />He did something with the Bank of England Independence, maintaining that it just could not be independent because there was a clause in the Act which allowed the Govt to intervene in certain emergency circumstances.<br /><br />The fact that no intervention has happened in 20 years is irrelevant.<br /><br />The Prof does no do nuance.<br /><br />Matt Wardmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-39121003745997271502017-04-18T00:21:54.746-07:002017-04-18T00:21:54.746-07:00"It's clear Prof Murphy is an academic an..."It's clear Prof Murphy is an academic and not a real-world businessman"<br />It's pretty clear he's neither, more a pompous, self-obsessed, cock.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-89212769505125519472017-04-18T00:00:50.503-07:002017-04-18T00:00:50.503-07:00Are we allowed to be sardonic?
The Doctor came
An...Are we allowed to be sardonic?<br /><br />The Doctor came<br />And popped his balloon<br />And out came ... Prof MurphaloonAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-40780862772858453782017-04-17T13:26:21.047-07:002017-04-17T13:26:21.047-07:00Murphy has zero academic standing. You have to cal...Murphy has zero academic standing. You have to call into question the academic standing of City University Graemehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11007306140530173428noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-69353430762348024322017-04-17T13:16:00.543-07:002017-04-17T13:16:00.543-07:00yep, that's how the data's provided - clic...yep, that's how the data's provided - click through on the link in note title? Kevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-66054757880327221682017-04-17T13:14:19.688-07:002017-04-17T13:14:19.688-07:00I'd need to go back and double-check source da...I'd need to go back and double-check source data - but presumably it's within South East?Kevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-29745291049388912212017-04-17T10:22:37.944-07:002017-04-17T10:22:37.944-07:00Why has London beed excluded from NUTS 1 regional ...Why has London beed excluded from NUTS 1 regional GVA in chart 6?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-78713578250222205722017-04-17T10:14:12.171-07:002017-04-17T10:14:12.171-07:00It's pretty clear that our tax accountant Rich...It's pretty clear that our tax accountant Richard is so fixated on receiving some political recognition and quid pro quo (having been deinied his request to Corbyn for a knighthood) that he's lost his ability to reason criticallyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-83777167252884060422017-04-17T05:13:36.804-07:002017-04-17T05:13:36.804-07:00tl:drtl:drAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com