tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post7634616360381130282..comments2024-01-12T01:56:21.933-08:00Comments on chokka blog: Joan McAlpine, GERS DenierKevin Haguehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comBlogger71125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-38014194851924011492017-05-12T15:23:54.506-07:002017-05-12T15:23:54.506-07:00I am a classic floating voter on the Scottish inde...I am a classic floating voter on the Scottish independence, I’ve changed my mind there times so far and fully reserve my right to change my mind again!<br /><br />I spent a year working with economists in the Scottish government and external economic consultants looking at the economic structure of the country so I do think I have a reasonable grasp of the situation.<br /><br />My thoughts are this:<br /><br />1. Global GDP figures don’t add up. Jokingly some economists have said this shows proof of an alien civilisation as that would be the only reason for a global trade deficit but in reality it just shows that the numbers are quite badly wrong.<br /><br />2. Sub-state GDP numbers are much worse. This isn’t a Scottish issue, it’s just a fact in every country in the world.<br /><br />3. One could easily make adjustments to the GERS numbers up or down for an independent Scotland. Looking at backward linkages, Brexit, immigration, currency movements and budget choices I could easily show independence as a better option. If I was paid enough I could offer the reverse as a better option too!<br /><br />My honest view is with Scottish net immigration below 10,000 as promised by the UK government and with Brexit that independence is probably a better economic option in the long term but that’s an opinion. It’s not proof. Politicians on all sides lie: there’s been some awful lies from the SNP and Kezia Dugdale has been liar in print too and I do think in the interests of balance it would be good to cover some of that in your blog.<br /><br />It’s absolutely not a fact that an independent Scotland would need to make dramatic spending cuts more painful than Westminster austerity. That’s an opinion which may or may not be true. We just don’t have an ability to know what the future will bring. The way to refute nationalist lies isn’t to offer unionist lies.<br /><br />But if you do think that an independent Scotland would need cuts more than a Scotland in the UK it would be helpful to explain why. Maybe you could convince me.Andrew Veitchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-55838114018857688442017-04-18T06:51:50.034-07:002017-04-18T06:51:50.034-07:00Anonymous
I see where you are coming from however...Anonymous<br /><br />I see where you are coming from however when the UK's standard corporation tax was at 30% and above we generated a number of budget surpluses between 1997-2002 while the economy was still growing.<br /><br />I believe businesses choose Scotland & the UK because our population is relatively educated and has a diversity of skills and expertise, healthy, with reasonable transport & infrastructure and is generally a stable society more so than because we have favourable tax rates.Drewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-85084563660089081002017-04-14T04:46:00.305-07:002017-04-14T04:46:00.305-07:00'When New Labour came into power they cut the ...'When New Labour came into power they cut the standard rate of corporation tax from 33% to 28%.'<br /><br />The justification for this was an increase in tax take overall year on year, not convinced a corp tax increase in current circumstances, as you suggest, would yield the same.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-25419076351130596672017-04-13T08:49:08.313-07:002017-04-13T08:49:08.313-07:00I have just listened to the interview and I must s...I have just listened to the interview and I must say I am sick and tired of people like Richard Murphy. Kevin was unable to even speak but I think that we have experienced the nationalist point being the only one. Figures can be made to prove or disprove anything but GERS was the gold standard for independence. Scotland is a shambles and trying to pull the wool over our eyes is disgraceful. We have no answers to the basic questions that the Scottish people actually need. Even saying that the Scottish "Government" doesn't know who the tax payers are is rubbish. They found my husband who doesn't even live in this country. There needs to be an honesty to the debate but that won't happen because the truth isn't fit for purpose.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-33677091143289026792017-04-13T03:41:15.831-07:002017-04-13T03:41:15.831-07:00When New Labour came into power they cut the stand...When New Labour came into power they cut the standard rate of corporation tax from 33% to 28%.<br /><br />The Conservatives have reduced this rate further to the current level of 20% with a commitment to cutting it to 17% by 2020.<br /><br />Using GERS figures for that period 97-2016, can anyone tell me approximately the total apportioned share of tax revenue Scotland has lost out on annually by this reduction and how this impacts on our growing deficit?<br /><br />It occurred to me one of the ways to reduce our deficit in an independent Scotland would be to increase corporation tax on the standard rate back to pre-1997 levels but perhaps maintain a lower rate for the smaller profit rate.<br /><br />Appreciate this would cause issues around our competitiveness compared to rUK and attracting inward investment and I also recognise the SNP's policy (at least under Salmond) is also to reduce corporation tax. However in order to balance our books, a return to previous UK tax rates may help us reduce the deficit.<br /><br />ThanksDrewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-11738525025239592802017-04-08T07:49:33.393-07:002017-04-08T07:49:33.393-07:00I'm afraid I have committed a transposition of...I'm afraid I have committed a transposition of names worthy of Warden Spooner. Whenever I said Stephen Murphy, I meant Richard Murphy. My apologies.David GREENnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-15131724560998424032017-04-08T06:46:23.710-07:002017-04-08T06:46:23.710-07:00In reply to Dave R 1 April 2017 at 01:36
GERS all...In reply to Dave R 1 April 2017 at 01:36<br /><br />GERS allocated the missing £655 million expenditure on Private Sector Housing to UK Housing and Community Amenities expenditure - If it's legitimate for it not to be allocated to Scotland where the expenditure occurred, surly it shouldn't be legitimate to add the £655m to rUK where it didn't occur. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-50829202301883290822017-04-07T02:35:41.849-07:002017-04-07T02:35:41.849-07:00Well, you certainly managed to stoke up a response...Well, you certainly managed to stoke up a response on the Joan McAlpine. As for Stephen Murphy, I have to confess that I hadn't heard of him until he featured in your blog. When I looked him up, I found he had two claims to fame. First, he makes large fiscal claims without supporting methodology. Thus his estimate of the amount of revenue lost to HMRC in uncollected tax is far higher than HMRC themselves estimate. He may be right, but he doesn't explain how he arrives at the figure he does. Most people, including the upper echelons of the Labour Party, seem to have put some water between themselves and Murphy. Maybe he smells.<br /><br />Second, Murphy is apparently not above libel; that is, the legally indefensible publication or broadcast of words or images that are degrading to a person or injurious to his or her reputation. How do we know? Because he was sued by Lord Ashcroft for an alleged libel and Murphy lost. He libelled Lord Ashcroft, and he apologised unreservedly and publicly to Ashcroft, paid his costs and those of two Belize banks, and made a substantial donation to a charity of Ashcroft's nomination. Ouch! That doesn't sound cheap to me.<br /><br />But you can see his attraction to the SNP. Unfounded allegations about tax revenues, etc. would be grist to their mill.David GREENnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-3461964108881697832017-04-01T01:36:44.393-07:002017-04-01T01:36:44.393-07:00In reply to Anonymous (In a nutshell HM Treasury c...<br />In reply to Anonymous (<i>In a nutshell HM Treasury confirms GERS figures have excluded £655 million S103A023 Private Sector Housing expenditure.<br /><br />https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/cra_2016_housing_and_community_a#incoming-959916</i><br /><br />Presumably the clue is in the fact that this is 'private Sector housing expenditure' not government, might explain why it is missing from 'Governmnet Expenditure and Revenue' GER stats? However if it was government paying out to private housing I would presume it would just add to the size of the Scottish deficit since it is spending not income, thus adding another 0.6 billion to the already huge likely deficit that an independent Scotland would have to deal with.Dave Rhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07951554227625858572noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-53822356282082301622017-03-31T15:20:06.200-07:002017-03-31T15:20:06.200-07:00Kevin, for your next trick, can you sort this out ...Kevin, for your next trick, can you sort this out for us?<br />http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/spending-on-scottish-pupils-falls-by-over-1bn-in-7-years-1-4409239Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-80624753012709001612017-03-31T08:09:53.690-07:002017-03-31T08:09:53.690-07:00FOI request to HM Treasury about the £650 million ...FOI request to HM Treasury about the £650 million Housing and community amenities 2015-16 expenditure not included in GERS!<br /><br />In a nutshell HM Treasury confirms GERS figures have excluded £655 million S103A023 Private Sector Housing expenditure.<br /><br />https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/cra_2016_housing_and_community_a#incoming-959916Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-88807350418978553392017-03-30T12:17:48.899-07:002017-03-30T12:17:48.899-07:00Telegraph deniers!
"Lukas Scholts 30 Mar 201...Telegraph deniers!<br /><br />"Lukas Scholts 30 Mar 2017 7:44PM<br /><br />@The Answer @Lukas Scholts I'd already read them, so, you're right, no need to thank you. <br /><br />Murphy is a recognised expert in taxation law, he works with the OECD and all sorts. I am not an expert in taxation, are you?<br /><br />I guess at the very least we can see that its debatable. <br /><br />Kevin Hague has been widely discredited."<br /><br />http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/29/nicola-sturgeon-touch-scots-brexit-poll-shows-support-theresa/<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-38011792667016688172017-03-30T11:50:10.064-07:002017-03-30T11:50:10.064-07:00The very sad decline of Common Weal continues apac...The very sad decline of Common Weal continues apace:<br />https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10672/robin-mcalpine-be-careful-it-isnt-gers-thats-con-its-spin-it-thats-problem#comment-138946<br /><br />Robin McAlpine appears to have lost his mind.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-35885145504625112692017-03-30T06:10:57.756-07:002017-03-30T06:10:57.756-07:00Scotland has no Central Bank, so therefore no oppo...Scotland has no Central Bank, so therefore no opportunity for financial borrowing.We will have no Scottish currency,no sterling, no Euros nothing. The largest deficit in Europe. Everything is going absolutely swimmingly so far.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-40272494538371604672017-03-29T08:23:38.226-07:002017-03-29T08:23:38.226-07:00Kevin, have you seen that the FoAI has taken up yo...Kevin, have you seen that the FoAI has taken up your cause?<br /><br />https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/#more-1745Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-26443007354010196722017-03-28T11:12:31.755-07:002017-03-28T11:12:31.755-07:00Great article, nice length.Great article, nice length.Jack Ahttp://www.weareoptic.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-41059005228945579262017-03-28T06:24:26.665-07:002017-03-28T06:24:26.665-07:00I see Fraser of Allander have also released some n...<br />I see Fraser of Allander have also released some news on GERS , it doesn't back up Joans lies either <br /><br />https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-8158158547407982552017-03-28T06:22:32.706-07:002017-03-28T06:22:32.706-07:00I see Fraser of Allander have put out a blog on GE...<br />I see Fraser of Allander have put out a blog on GERS now too, strangely it doesn't agree with Joans take on GERS either <br /><br />https://fraserofallander.org/2017/03/28/estimating-scotlands-fiscal-position/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-78257745525610959222017-03-27T01:32:02.017-07:002017-03-27T01:32:02.017-07:00Those who blether about Norway and oil funds would...Those who blether about Norway and oil funds would do well to acquaint themselves with the fact that Norway needs an oil price of $70 to balance the budget and began withdrawing from the fund last year. Its investment strategy might be described as questionable and the fund is offset by national debt, with long-term problems suggesting Norwegian happiness might be severely challenged in the not too distant future.Sheumaisnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-46933999861475465512017-03-26T16:13:45.524-07:002017-03-26T16:13:45.524-07:00Gordon 1977, thank you for your kind wishes. I had...Gordon 1977, thank you for your kind wishes. I had a lovely day, thank you.<br /> Stewart Dredgehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04499625308808399000noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-26314373822377761432017-03-26T07:45:40.069-07:002017-03-26T07:45:40.069-07:00With apologies for the slight off-topic.. Bill Ken...With apologies for the slight off-topic.. Bill Kenny, as I was the author of the "make up your own mind which [of the arguments] is right" comment, you would be doing me a genuine favour by pointing out in what way it is ungrammatical, if that was what you were implying. Namaste. RabCHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-26648850085617169692017-03-26T07:26:18.579-07:002017-03-26T07:26:18.579-07:00@Stewart Dredge
Oh dear, we are tetchy. aren't...@Stewart Dredge<br />Oh dear, we are tetchy. aren't we? Let's look at your points:<br /><br />'Norway and Scotland have similarly sized populations' - Norway has 1/2 million less and the population is more concentrated, making it easier to service.<br /><br />'Each has removed (or in Scotland's case had removed for it) similar amounts of oil and gas' - Norway has greatly larger accessible reserves. <br /><br />'The UK's debt mountain, nearly £2trillion relates mostly to its terrible performance after 2008' - something to do with bailing out Scottish-owned banks like RBS and Lloyds, as well as paying the Barnett formula as I seem to recall.<br /><br />'Nothing to do with trades unions, EU membership and "dependency culture" (though "dependency" is exactly what unionist seem to advocate these days!)' - Scotland has been addicted to welfare dependency since the 1950s. Scottish trade unions went far to destroying shipbuilding, car manufacturing and heavy industry. Norway has benefited by having a more flexible approach to commerce and by its fishing not being part of the EU's fishery protection racket.<br /><br />'If Norway's citizens have moved-on from poor diet and poverty-related health issues and early death isn't that another excellent argument FOR independence' - and what people eat, drink and smoke is the fault of London, how? This is a self-inflicted wound by the Scots.<br /><br />'As for "suffering" from high taxes, spending on improving your country's services and infrastructure helps a country's economy and leads to even more prosperity and happiness in its population' - only true to a point. Spending as a form of investment can be sensible if used wisely. Spending willy-nilly on welfare is very wasteful and simply pushed up taxes. An independent Scotland (even if GERS is 10-15% inaccurate) will still need to borrow. <br /><br />'On the subject of "happiness" there is a new study out that shows Norway and Denmark right up there at 1 and 2 with broken old Britain tumbling down the rankings and no doubt dragging Scotland with it' - actually I would see it the other way round, with the UK being dragged down by a bunch of moaning, whinging SNP types, for whom the sun never shines. <br /><br />'Your glum and doom-laden post, Gordon' - no, just realistic.<br /><br />'While the upbeat and positive Scandinavians clutch their expensive drinks in half-full glasses, the moany old Brits gaze into the dregs of their cheap pints of bitter and winge about bloody trades unions, bloody Jock Nats and the bloody EU' - now who is being glum and doom-laden? Whining hypocrite.<br /><br />'So do the Gers figures tell us anything about the use the phenomenon "happiness denial" and the promotion of fear, gloom and despondency to break a nation's spirit' - no of course not, they are statistics, not a rather dubious social science estimate.<br /><br />Your response is a perfect example of the over-sensitive, chip on the shoulder extremist, who cannot accept criticism, no matter how mild. The bottom line is that there are all kinds of reasons why Scotland cannot be and never would have been like Norway; it is too easy to imagine an independent Scots government blowing all the oil on social handouts and subsidising obsolete industries.<br /><br />Not a happy person are you? Dredge by name, dredge by nature? I am off to do the garden. Have a nice day.Gordon 1977https://www.blogger.com/profile/05488755921533357270noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-66890024187764590822017-03-26T03:18:01.928-07:002017-03-26T03:18:01.928-07:00soccer doc, your post at 16.42 yesterday with its ...soccer doc, your post at 16.42 yesterday with its truly desperate analogy is just a laughable fail. For the nth time, the GERS figures are compiled in Scotland by Scottish civil servants for the Scottish Government. It is solely the fact that they are compiled through a robust and recognised methodology that gives them *the status of* national statistics. They have been Scotland's own figures for years, which is why the SNP set such store by (some of) them in the run-up to 2014. Westminster or rUK cannot and does not coerce the figures or the conclusions, as you seem so determined to suggest. Please, move on, for all our sakes. RabCHAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-86308923344911184812017-03-26T00:26:44.554-07:002017-03-26T00:26:44.554-07:00Don't kid yourself about the growth commission...Don't kid yourself about the growth commission report. If it is truthful then I suspect that it will be suppressed, a bit like the"National Conversation". The SNP will either only publish favourable bits or traduce the whole thing.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-36180676855998367462017-03-26T00:18:09.891-07:002017-03-26T00:18:09.891-07:00Regardless of your view of the past, the independe...Regardless of your view of the past, the independence debate is about the future. To win my vote, the SNP must put a credible economic case based on demonstrable facts. They haven't ever done that, and their every claim is either a fantasy or a denial of facts. That is why only hardline nationalists would be in favour of independence.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com