tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post7408746908823319953..comments2024-01-12T01:56:21.933-08:00Comments on chokka blog: Yes or No: Makes no DifferenceKevin Haguehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-23752224648174905312015-04-11T08:18:02.633-07:002015-04-11T08:18:02.633-07:00Whatever you claim,you are most definitely not pol...Whatever you claim,you are most definitely not politically neutral. You have spent how many years now(?) trying to disprove the economic case for Independence and now FFA which is not even on the cards.<br /><br />You have not put the unionist case under anything like the same scrutiny yet you claim to have the best of intentions. Your only interest is maintaining the status quo because it serves you and your ilk well. Stop the hypocrisy. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-49137816328483512982015-04-10T04:56:27.145-07:002015-04-10T04:56:27.145-07:00NO ONE IS OFFERING FFA. NO ONE WILL OFFER FFA.
A...NO ONE IS OFFERING FFA. NO ONE WILL OFFER FFA. <br /><br />Are you not bored telling people who think differently that they are stupid? Certainly most are bored hearing it and it will sway no one. Despite what you claim, your 'economics' are far more politically motivated than you admit. <br /><br />Try some number crunching on Osborne or Ball's fantasy economics and then come back and say that we could not do better.<br /><br /> I will not be reading any more of this ideologically driven 'analysis'<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-10462404758460089522015-03-11T14:07:37.299-07:002015-03-11T14:07:37.299-07:00Another great analysis. The level of fiscal incomp...Another great analysis. The level of fiscal incompetence in Scotland regarding Government figures is like that of the third world. The SNP have tried not to talk about economics because their assertions are not backed up by the data. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13644182561334208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-4253157131865194452015-03-09T02:54:39.038-07:002015-03-09T02:54:39.038-07:00Good read Kevin, extremely easy to follow and well...Good read Kevin, extremely easy to follow and well researched.<br /><br />Two aspects of this that I would like to bring up are:<br /><br />i) How the UK's current level of borrowing compares when taken in a historical context. <br />ii) What level of borrowing is considered too high?<br /><br />Looking at the figures since '66, I count only 7 years during which Britain ran a budget surplus.<br /><br />In addition to that, taken as a proportion of GDP we see that we ran a larger deficit from 92-94 than we do presently.<br /><br />So is it even desirable for us to completely eliminate the deficit (or 'close' it, to use the same terminology that you do)? The data tells us that running a budget deficit has been a matter of course for around 4 decades now and that we have been through periods of comparably high borrowing before.<br /><br />You state that the current deficit is too high (or unsustainable), but by what exact criteria is that true? From my reading on the subject, public borrowing levels are generally regarded as acceptable if they result in a stable debt to GDP ratio (which is the measure of a country's ability to service its debt).<br /><br />Looking at this figure we see that public debt increased at a unsustainable rate post-financial-crisis, but as of this year debt to GDP appears to have stabilised around the 90% mark.<br /><br />So if the data is telling us that we are in no danger of being unable to make future payments on out debt, why should deficit reduction be elevated to such a high priority? And why should we assume that eliminating the deficit entirely would be a necessary strategy?<br /><br />Apologies for the slightly rambling nature of this comment, it's a bit of a brain dump while I try and get my head around the meaning of all this.Wicked Ericnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-8847898078687905892015-03-01T01:22:16.539-08:002015-03-01T01:22:16.539-08:00Has anyone done a similar analysis on the uk as a ...Has anyone done a similar analysis on the uk as a whole? If we take it that an independent scotland would have struggled to pay its way, how does the same analysis work for the Uk Economy.<br /><br />Are we Better Together? Is the uk deficit unsustainable? Are we relying on London to disproportionately drive our economy in the way North Sea oil is considered for scotland? <br /><br />I've read a lot of interpretations and analyses of Scotland's economy - some optimistic and some pessimistic, but none for the uk as a whole.Jason Hoffmannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-43919330279888945942015-02-26T14:58:24.678-08:002015-02-26T14:58:24.678-08:00Sorry for the confusion. my point on expats was th...Sorry for the confusion. my point on expats was that we're there enough opportunities in scotland then fewer would have left and more would return too. the other point I was trying to make was that the deficit could be reduced if there was an influx of young immigrants to Scotland as it would reduce our average age and increase the numbers paying into tax. However the economy needs to be creating many more jobs.<br /><br />This in turn suggests that a regional policy is required in the UK to spread out the benefits of growth far more evenly through investment in infrastructure rather than starting from London & SE. Wales and many regions of England get a seriously bad deal.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-17873787247906331462015-02-26T10:55:27.023-08:002015-02-26T10:55:27.023-08:00Anonymous:
a/ my conclusion is not that we are wit...Anonymous:<br />a/ my conclusion is not that we are without hope but that we should be realistic about the challenge and avoid leaping to simplistic and un-thought-through conclusions<br />b/ I make no conclusions that need "verifying" - I make factual observations in an open and discursive manner<br />c/ you've lost me with your expat point - are you assuming forced repatriation of expat Scots?Kevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-14937979587746045432015-02-26T07:53:40.069-08:002015-02-26T07:53:40.069-08:00Kevin,
Once again a 'tour de force'. Simpl...Kevin,<br />Once again a 'tour de force'. Simply and clearly stated to expose the economic climate we find ourselves in and the options we have to extricate ourselves from this predicament.<br />I look forward to more of the same.<br />Cheers<br />TerryTerry Summersnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-39364631302760976132015-02-25T13:04:06.807-08:002015-02-25T13:04:06.807-08:00I like your analysis which suggests that we're...I like your analysis which suggests that we're in the shit regardless of where we go from here and would also like to make some points.<br /><br /> Have you discussed your conclusions with any professional economists for them to verify your conclusions?<br /><br />An Intersting fact that came out of the referendum was the differences between the numbers of scots in the rest of the UK and rUK citizens residing in scotland. the numbers were 700k and 400k respectively, indicating a population deficit of 300k Assuming that each earns median wage then this is about £7.5Bn missing from the Scottish economy annually. In my experience the average age of those outside Scotland is lower and more are of working age and generally in higher earning jobs while the converse is true of the rUK population in Scotland,ntheyd come to retire or downsize for example.<br /><br />So add in another 200k targeted immigrants and Scotland's deficit would be much more manageable.<br /><br />This actually points to a fundamental problem with the UK in that the lack of a balanced Regional policy means that it is difficult to determine whether UK growth at a national level is being distributed evenly across the population, or whether there are vast differences (as I expect there is in favour of London). my hunch is that Wales, Cumbria and Northern Ireland lose badly out if this.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com