tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post365456264072702268..comments2024-01-12T01:56:21.933-08:00Comments on chokka blog: GERS 2016-17: A Journey in GraphsKevin Haguehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comBlogger18125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-62601855184958999162017-08-30T05:22:05.207-07:002017-08-30T05:22:05.207-07:00Glenn, you make a fair few assumptions while overl...Glenn, you make a fair few assumptions while overlooking some fairly obvious real life examples that contradict your arguments.<br /><br />Ireland spends around £850 million Euros a year on defence, compared to Scotland's £3 billion share of the UK defence budget (one of the highest in the world). <br /><br />Ireland are not NATO members and they haven't faced a serious military threat since becoming an independent country. <br /><br />In fact, throughout history only the Scots, English, the Normans and the Vikings have ever invaded Ireland.<br /><br />Iceland has no armed forces to speak of at all and yet is a member of NATO.<br /><br />Drewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-48964820550655151172017-08-28T01:24:42.975-07:002017-08-28T01:24:42.975-07:00I have no idea why Nationalists prattle on about D...I have no idea why Nationalists prattle on about Defence spending. The phony argument that it will be cheaper to run the military in Scotland, misses some home truths.<br /><br />For one, Scotland would be part of NATO and be obliged to participate on NATO exercise, and deployment abroad as part of NATO, well unless with their logic, NATO deploy in Kilmarnock.<br /><br />Then there is the issue of peacekeeping duties, would Scotland refuse point blank to send military personnel to abroad.<br /><br />All this comes at a cost, which nationalists cannot understand. <br /><br />If Nationalists understood what the military actually do, beyond mouthing off about bombing all the time, they would have a point.<br /><br />Glenn Middletonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14650280913311894166noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-34844145748134904822017-08-25T03:00:56.118-07:002017-08-25T03:00:56.118-07:00That's true Geacher and for all the same reaso...That's true Geacher and for all the same reasons the UK would struggle without Scotland to sustain the same military force and expertise, Scotland's wide open spaces and remote coastal areas are vital to the UK for world class practice and testing facilities. At 25,000 hectares the MOD is one of the largest landowners in Scotland. <br /><br />We have the UK’s largest missile range based in the Western Isles, the only ship to shore firing range at Cape Wrath, the UK-NATO multinational exercises conducted at Luce Bay, BUTEC underwater testing based near Skyle & Applecross, one of Europe's largest conventional weapons bases in Glen Douglas and of course the near impossible problem of how to replicate Coulport & Faslane elsewhere in the UK with the same operational capabilities, not to mention the cost and time it would take to complete.<br /><br />In a sense the Barnett formula and fiscal transfer are insurance policies to prevent the UK losing access to all of these military assets. If Scotland was ever to tackle our health and social inequalities and have a better economy and standard of living, it could spell bad news for the UK Government.<br /><br />Unemployment and poverty means a career in the armed forces remains attractive. I live in a traditional 'working-class' former industrial town in the central belt, with some of the poorest postcodes in the country.<br /><br />The armed forces have a recruitment centre in the town, regularly have a recruitment promotional tent set up in the town centre on weekends, and the local pubs all have armed forces receruitment advert posters in them.<br /><br />Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-89337158139552793042017-08-24T12:44:35.267-07:002017-08-24T12:44:35.267-07:00"The question remains: how do we improve the ..."The question remains: how do we improve the economy of Scotland?"<br />I like the question. And the answer is through peace, easy taxes and a tolerable administration of justice. The rest can be left to the natural order of things.<br /><br />As an aside, I find it ironic that the SNP, Greens and Lib Dems seem to compete for the claim of being the most 'pro-European' of parties, but when you mention how European countries operate their free market health care, fire service, ambulances, and their VAT levels on food and domestic energy they go all coy. So they reveal themselves to be not pro-European at all.Andrew Careyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08442714147160589939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-90909969121875718432017-08-24T12:10:39.647-07:002017-08-24T12:10:39.647-07:00Just to back up how the difficult it is in finding...Just to back up how the difficult it is in finding out the exact costs of defence for Scotland, we must appreciate the costs which are not spent IN Scotland, but are spent FOR Scotland. As an ex employee of the MOD (nothing exciting I'm afraid), I can tell you we benefit from the Officer Training Centres in Sandhurst, Dartmouth & Cranwell, MI5 & MI6 plus the Counter-Terrorism units in London, The Army Training Centre in Brecon, Wales and many many more. Oh, and the Radar station in RAF Boulmer, which covers our extensive coastline and airspace. How would you apportion costs for that? By length of coastline? By land/air space? By population? This should partly, at least answer Andy's question above. The demographics of defence are changing, and it is now less about boots on the ground, more about the support of technology.Geachernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-35484403976660567162017-08-24T11:17:21.751-07:002017-08-24T11:17:21.751-07:00Robert - the difference is our share of the UK def...Robert - the difference is our share of the UK deficit = our share of the UK debt. That's why it's a transfer - our share of debt doesn't go up by as much as our contribution to that debt by dint of our larger deficitKevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-11844976643058914272017-08-24T09:20:40.565-07:002017-08-24T09:20:40.565-07:00We can safely say that, for the last decade and mo...We can safely say that, for the last decade and more, there's consistently been an £8 - 10bn onshore deficit gap between Scotland and the rest of the UK and there's currently no sign of it going away. This is the "black-hole" that some of us keep banging on about.<br /><br />Let's clear a common point of confusion: the "black-hole" doesn't mean the deficit. It means the amount bigger our deficit would be than that we now share with the UK ... if we were independent and still raising and spending public funds at the rate shown in GERS.<br /><br />Kev - £10 billion black hole = difference between onshore deficit gap between Scotland and rest of UK - got that. Where does the latest £13 billion fiscal deficit fit in? What happens to it? Sorry to be so dimRoberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17747546861345189852noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-5046361881473066562017-08-24T08:47:34.470-07:002017-08-24T08:47:34.470-07:00I would like us to start exploring how Scotland ca...I would like us to start exploring how Scotland can improve it's situation. I created a section for discussion at: http://www.electricscotland.com/independence/sip/index.htm<br /><br />Like on Energy it seems the wind farms are actually costing us whereas investing in new Thorium plants would be greener and more cost effective.<br /><br />I've been exploring Education and it seems to me that better teacher training and letting teachers teach is the way forward.<br /><br />On Heath it seems to me that costs could be cut by focusing on obesity and perhaps looking at building a Scottish canteen system to ensure low cost nutritious meals.<br /><br />Fishing should be able to generate more income.<br /><br />In the above section I've been taking papers from around the world that seem to me to be able to contribute to Scotland's economy. <br /><br />It just seems to me that Scotland is lacking in vision and entrepreneurial spirit. <br /><br />So surely this is the point of GERS to show how we are doing now so that we can plan how to fix the issues?Alastair McIntyrehttp://www.electricscotland.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-76047431843240644092017-08-24T08:41:42.625-07:002017-08-24T08:41:42.625-07:00I'm not sure we should be overly pleased that ...I'm not sure we should be overly pleased that we require a £10bn fiscal transfer. <br /><br />Part of the reason we still have higher than average social and health inequalities in the first place is because the UK Government effectively gave up on addressing deindustrialisation and the resulting poverty in the central belt, moving the educated and professional classes out to the New Towns and leaving everyone else to struggle on with few job prospects and poor housing. Little wonder alcohol and drug abuse became an epidemic. <br /><br />The Glasgow Centre for Population Health seems to be in no doubt a fair amount of blame for today's problems lie at the door of the Scottish Office and Labour controlled councils.<br /><br />http://www.gcph.co.uk/assets/0000/5586/History_politics_and_vulnerability.pdf<br /><br />But we are where we are and just have to get on with it. <br /><br /><br /><br />Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-45737272031067259352017-08-24T07:12:34.034-07:002017-08-24T07:12:34.034-07:00Andy - when we're getting a net £10bn fiscal t...Andy - when we're getting a net £10bn fiscal transfer these arguments seem a little hollow - assume we should pay nothing for defence there's still a £7bn net fiscal transfer - arguing about whether enough of the defence budget is being spent in Scotland seems a rather irrelevant distraction tbhKevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-29895378232305405332017-08-24T07:10:12.088-07:002017-08-24T07:10:12.088-07:00Anon - yes but that's not what GERS is for - y...Anon - yes but that's not what GERS is for - you're confusing what the purpose of these National Accounts is - and as I said, anybody is free (as the SNP and Yes campaign do) to argue for a different spend on defence were we to leave, but as long as we're here it's reasonable to pay our per capita share of the costs of defending us - of course (as GERS shows) from a "fiscal autonomy" perspective we *don't* pay for our share of defence and debt and much more - that's why there's a deficit gap.<br /><br />The effective transfer is £10bn; partly because when allocated our per capita share of defence that's £3.0bn - if you want to argue we should only pay £2.4bn (as White Paper did) then feel free - doesn't make much of a difference to the overall storyKevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-42074849300561625962017-08-24T06:56:31.884-07:002017-08-24T06:56:31.884-07:00I take your point but even on the basis that Scotl...I take your point but even on the basis that Scotland benefits from UK wide armed forces irrespective of their location, there has been a reduction in the numbers of UK armed forces and we are still allocated £3 billion as part of GERS.<br /><br />In 2000 there were were 207,000 regular personnel in the UK armed forces and we currently have 153,470 regulars.<br /><br />So we are getting around 25% fewer regular UK armed forces personnel to defend us but with little in the way of reduction to our own expenditure.<br /><br />That's not an argument for independence by the way or an accusation that GERS is not legitimate.<br /><br /><br />Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-87537003750982071382017-08-24T06:34:25.324-07:002017-08-24T06:34:25.324-07:00Andy said:
"So surely the Scottish Governmen...Andy said:<br /><br />"So surely the Scottish Government should be able to get the MOD to provide precise defence expenditure in Scotland for GERS?"<br /><br />Yorkshire same size population as Scotland gets £211 million, Scotland £1,500 million. (2015/16)<br /><br /><br /><br />https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/mod-regional-expenditure-with-uk-industry-and-supported-employment-201516Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-91942512491692168402017-08-24T05:35:56.836-07:002017-08-24T05:35:56.836-07:00Re other defence comment:
Same point - the money ...Re other defence comment:<br /><br />Same point - the money is considered as spend "for" Scotland so GERS explicitly (and imho appropriately) takes a simple per capita allocation. [see my previous comment re what that means for those interpreting figures).<br /><br />Kevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-86699719010168461842017-08-24T05:34:16.796-07:002017-08-24T05:34:16.796-07:00re Defence allocation: the principle is spent &quo...re Defence allocation: the principle is spent "for" Scotland not "in" Scotland (how would you allocate troops based overseas? think of overseas embassies and trade consuls in international affairs etc.)<br /><br />Really all that matters is that we are allocated our per capita share of UK defence costs and we know what that is - anybody making the case for indy can replace that figure with a smaller number if they wish - the White Paper knocked £0.5bn off it - of course you may also want to decide if you are are willing to remain part of NATO or not - these are well worn argumentsKevin Haguehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14587343060415859159noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-11593825215924926332017-08-24T05:18:11.389-07:002017-08-24T05:18:11.389-07:00According to your graphs, in the year 2000, £3 bil...According to your graphs, in the year 2000, £3 billion was allocated to Scotland's share of defence expenditure by GERS.<br /><br />In the year 2000 there were 24,680 MOD personnel based in Scotland and in 2012 there were 11,190 military personnel based in Scotland. <br /><br />http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/scotland-military-numbers-1486835<br /><br />MOD personnel fell by 35 per cent between 2000 and 2012, in total a reduction of 13,490 MOD personnel.<br /><br />In 2012, GERS assumed £3.5 billion to Scotland's defence expenditure therefore our defence expenditure costs have estimated to have gone up by half a billion, even though the numbers of military personnel have fallen by 35%.<br /><br />According to the Daily Telegraph, the MOD/UK Government calculates 10,000 soldiers roughly cost £1 billion a year (the formula applied by the Coalition when it cut 20,000 soldiers to plug a £2 billion black hole in the defence budget)<br /><br />Paragraph 10: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10767952/Scotland-is-the-bedrock-of-Britains-defences.html<br /><br />So by those calculations, surely Scotland's share of defence expenditure should have fallen by at least a £1 billion in GERS, instead of rising by half a billion?<br /><br />I appreciate there are other types of expenditure for the military in Scotland such as heating, lighting, equipment costs, supplies and other associated running costs which we do not know.<br /><br />I could be wrong but capital expenditure asset purchases like new planes, vehicles, land etc are not included in revenue/expenditure accounts?<br /><br />So it would seem there is a discrepancy in the way defence expenditure is calculated in GERS?Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-5303952077449323152017-08-24T02:17:12.245-07:002017-08-24T02:17:12.245-07:00Kevin
as it is poor old England (The English) that...Kevin<br />as it is poor old England (The English) that takes the battering from the NATs why not include England in some of the graphs.<br />I like yourself probably get tired of hearing the English this and the English that. It might start to draw at least some of the poison.<br />Oilman1https://www.blogger.com/profile/12523326735829933505noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1603438996450817644.post-53913923798078582402017-08-24T01:59:08.234-07:002017-08-24T01:59:08.234-07:00Good factual and impartial post Kevin.
I had a qu...Good factual and impartial post Kevin.<br /><br />I had a question about defence spending, apologies if you have covered this elsewhere. I have only had a chance to skim read.<br /><br />Do the Scottish Government/Scottish civil servants still estimate defence spending in Scotland on an as per head of population basis?<br /><br />An FOI during the independence referendum campaign revealed the MOD allocate a 'location of work code' to defence expenditure in Scotland. <br /><br />http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-independence-spending-on-defence-sells-scots-short-by-1-9bn-1-2748605<br /><br />So surely the Scottish Government should be able to get the MOD to provide precise defence expenditure in Scotland for GERS?Andynoreply@blogger.com